The Dollar hurt Parity against the Euro, but did not follow through on buying

The Dollar continues to rally today and breaks the parity against the Euro for the first time in two years. However, the green will be disappearing since then, including Yen. There is a perception that money will decrease because the 10 -year crop will be a little weaker. Yen is the strongest today, and behind the Kiwi and Aussie. Sterling was the worst, followed by Canada and the Swiss Franc.

Technically, while the Dollar is ending gains, there is no sign of improvement at the moment. Levels to watch with 1.0189 low resistance in EUR/USD, 1.2055 low resistance in GBP/USD, 0.6873 low resistance in AUD/USD, 0.9721 low. small in USD/CHF, 134.74 small support in USD/JPY. When these levels are maintained, there is expected to be a further increase in funding in general.

In Europe, at the time of writing, the FTSE was down -0.21%. The DAX was down -0.61%. The CAC decreased -0.22%. The 10 -year Germany is falling -0.1065 at 1.142. Earlier in Asia, the Nikkei fell -1.77%. Hong Kong HSI fell -1.32%. China Shanghai SSE fell -0.97%. The Singapore Strait Times rose 0.46%. The yield of Japan1 0 -yaer JGB -0.0059 fell to 0.244.

ZEW’s economic sentiment fell to -53.8, which is better than the low -income index

German ZEW Economic Sentiment fell from -28 to -53.8 in July, below expectations of -38.0. The current Situation Index has fallen from -27.6 to -45.8, below expectations of -33.5. The two readings were significantly worse than the values ​​recorded at the onset of COVID-19 disease.

Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment fell as much as -28.0 to -51.1, below expectations of -40.0. The current Situation Index fell -18.0 to -44.4. Expectations of an increase of 6.8 pts rose to -25.6, leaving clearly unfavorable ground.

ZEW President Professor Achim Wambach: “The biggest concerns right now are about energy supply in Germany, the ECB’s announcement of rising interest rates and inflation. about the epidemic in China has led to a major decline of economic knowledge.

“Experts are evaluating the current economic situation more than last month and have further lowered their negative forecast for the next six months.

“Expectations have fallen sharply for strong sectors and investment in the economy, and food security is seen to be very weak.”

BoE Cunliffe on four lessons learned from the crypto winter

In a speech, BoE Vice Governor Jon Cunliffe spoke about the lessons learned from the “stability and loss in crypto markets”, dubbed the “crypto winter”.

He said, “The crypto-currency price has fallen sharply through the crypto ecosystem and has resulted in a large number of high-yield bonds,” which has resulted in Bitcoin’s loss of 70%. of his property.

Four lessons learned:

  • Technology does not change the problems under the economy and finance;
  • Regulators need to continue and intensify their efforts to ensure proper regulation of the use of crypto technologies in finance;
  • This solution must be built on the ironic principle of ‘the same problem, the same solution’;
  • Crypto – technologies give the idea of ​​innovation and financial efficiency. But for success and sustainability, it needs to be done in a way that risks are taken care of: people don’t fly long distances on safe planes.

Australian retailer Westpac fell to 83.8, compared with previous major shocks.

The Australian Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index fell from 86.4 to 83.8 in July. Confidence has fallen monthly this year, and is currently -19.7% below the December level.

Westpac said the level and speed of deterioration was “comparable to previous major tremors”. It added that fear is growing, with 73% polled expecting prices to rise by more than 1%.

In terms of RBA policy, Westpac expects a further increase of 50bps on August 2, bringing total earnings to 1.85%. Close to Westpac’s rated “independent segment” of 1.5-2.0%. He expects the RBA to use a “more vigilant” approach when the policy moves to “neutral”, and to relax the holding after the August hike.

Australia’s NAB business confidence fell to 1, but positions remained stable

Australia NAB business confidence fell from 6 to 1 June. Economic conditions fell from 15 to 13. Looking at some details, economic conditions fell from 21 to 18. Economic conditions fell from 16 to 12. Conditions fell. work from 12 to 10.

“Confidence fell below the average in June when inflation and rising interest rates were on the lookout,” said NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster. “Confidence in the real estate industry has been huge, falling more than 20pts in poor territory, reflecting concerns about the prospect of renting a home.”

“While confidence has fallen, business conditions have remained stable in June,” Oster said. “Conditions remain stable in the states and most industries. It continues to build only the best with the construction costs weighing in, even though it has a good pipeline of work in the area.

EUR/USD exchange rate overview

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9989; (P) 1.0086 (R1) 1.0139; More…

The EUR / USD exchange rate continues today to as low as 0.9999 so far. Intraday bias remains on the downside. The current should lower the 100% projection of 1.1184 to 1.0348 from 1.0773 at 0.9937, which is close to parity. A firm break there could accelerate down to the 161.8% projection at 0.9420. On the other hand, a break of 1.0189 small resistance will revert to intraday neutral bias. But the sentiment remains bearish as long as the 1.0358 support turns into resistance.

In the bigger picture, the trend is advancing from 1.6039 (2008 high). The next target is a 100% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 to 0.8694. In any case, the outlook will remain bearish as long as the resistance at 1.0773 is maintained, in case of a rebound.

Economic Update

GMT Ccy Events it’s true I guess Used to Edited
23:01 GBP BRC Like-For-Like Sales Y/Y Jun -1.30% -1.50%
23:50 JPY PPI Y/Y Jun 9.20% 9.00% 9.10% 9.30%
01:30 AUD NAB Business Trust Jun 1 6
01:30 AUD NAB Business Status Jun 13 16
09:00 EUR Germany ZEW Economic Review Jul -53.8 -38 -28
09:00 EUR Germany ZEW Current Status Jul -45.8 -33.5 -27.6
09:00 EUR Eurozone ZEW Economic Outlook Jul -51.1 -40 -28
10:00 USD NFIB Business Optimism Index Jun 89.5 93 93.1

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