The EUR/USD is a currency that is often used today. With yesterday’s slip at the start of the week, two is less than ten from parity. The decline was intensified in Asia and most European industries, leading the EUR / USD to fall. at 1.00 exactly at 11:46 am according to Bloomberg terminals. This 20 -year low was soon followed by a high -tech restoration project, which believes it serves as a The strong mental barrier to break. At the time of writing, the EUR / USD is changing hands at the 1.005 area. We’re worried it’s only a matter of time before we rest. If not today, then maybe tomorrow with the release of the US CPI it will bring back the sentiment to the Fed and its resilient efforts. We expect a lot of downtime to start when the EUR / USD goes below 1, the downleg will start to accelerate. The parity test is the same as yesterday, that is No problem. This is seen in other money laundering and The Japanese yen is more valuable to peers. USD / JPY is returning to 136.79, while EUR / JPY is increasing in the form of a decline to 137.34. Unlike yesterday, sterling is selling something more to the hedge. EUR/GBP (0.846) recovered half of Monday’s losses but continued to fall back into the uptrend. Fallout is limited to equity markets today. The EuroStoxx50 ended losses of 1.3% in flat trading today. U.S. markets opened with lower earnings (up 0.8% on the Nasdaq). Relationships have risen. The German Bunds continue to outperform the US Treasuries. German/European swaps are falling between 8/9 bps in the first tenor and 15+ bps in the long tenors. The German crop is 10 years old testing the 1.12%/1.15%critical support level. The 10y swap yield (-13bps) is struggling and currently does not maintain the 2%protection. U.S. stocks averaged 7.2 bps (2y) to 8.8 bps (20y) in a bull market. The nature of oil cuts, as OPEC had anticipated in 2023, did not satisfy the oil market. A barrel of Brent will cost around $ 5 to $ 102.2. The data set available today tells the same story. Germany’s ZEW fell more than expected with the current level falling from -27.6 to -45.8. Expectations fell off a cliff, from -28 to -53.8 (expected -40.5), the lowest since the national crisis in 2011.
The National Bank of Poland (NBP) has revised its July economic forecasts in the middle way for growth that is the highest since the March forecast. The NBP expects 2022 inflation at 14.2% (from 10.8% in March) and at 12.3% next year (from 9.0%). The increase is expected to be 4.1% in 2024. The latest Y / Y forecast is expected to increase. expected to increase in the first quarter of next year (18.8%). The NBP was 2.5% (+/- 1.0ppt). At the same time, growth for this year has increased further to 4.7% Y / Y (from 4.4%), but is expected to slow to 1.4% next year (from 3.0%). to the bottom in Q1 next year (0.5). % Y/Y). The ‘stagflationary outlook’ comes as the NBP increased last week to its policy price by a little over 50bps expected to 6.50%. and as NBP governor Glapinski pointed out NBP is nearing the end of its tight circle. Polish prices are rising sharply today as a result of the (problem-off) segment (2-y swap +25bps). The zloty weakened to EUR / PLN 4.85 intraday, but is currently trading close to 4.80.
The central bank of Hungary today increased the base rate by 2.0% to 9.75%. The MNB announced last week that it intends to bridge the gap between the 1W weekly fund and the base number after it. up to 1W to support the forint. The MNB reiterated today that it is ready to respond quickly and easily by setting the interest rate on the bank account for one week should there be a short -term rise in the financial and commodity markets. The next step of the ascent and the continued increase will require the continuation of the stable circle. The MNB is also constantly monitoring developments in the financial markets be prepared to participate in the decision -making process using each instrument in its monetary policy framework, if necessary ‘. So far, the MNB has no game changer for the forint. The forint traded this morning at EUR / HUF 414.5, in the wake of a lower low, but gained lower after the MNB interest rate (currently 408) was decided. Short -term prices in Hungary continue to rise. Currently, the market sees the highest growth rate of less than 13%.