Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 19 April: USD falls in US trade but closes higher

The USD started the NY session as the best of the major currencies (see post here), but lost some of the luster when US traders went in for the day. The greenback moved lower than the US opening levels during the session (except with the CAD). There is no known US catalyst for the decline. The US did not have any data released during the session, nor did the Fed.

At the end of the day, the GBP will end up as the strongest of the majors and the JPY the weakest.

The strengths and weaknesses of major currencies

In the UK, the inflation data released during their session was higher than expected with a high level of impact. Deutsche Bank sees two major increases to take the terminal rate up to 4.75% in June. The GBPUSD initially moved on the news, but reversed and opened the US group making new lows at 1.23914.

Those drops have been reversed in the GBPUSD with the price of the GBPUSD moving back above the hourly 200/100 MAs now close to converged at 1.2334. The price is trading at 1.2438 above those MA levels going to a close after reaching a high of the US session of 1.24736 during US time.

In the recent trading day, the moving averages reversed at 1.2334 are the barometer for buyers and sellers. Staying on top is more bullish. A downward trend is more bearish.

The GBPUSD has had a unique up and down trading day

The EURUSD also jumped to the NY/London morning low at 1.09165. That low is about 8 pips short of the low from Monday’s trade at 1.0908. The further rise took the price above its 200 hour moving average at 1.09547, but fell short of the 100 hour moving average currently at 1.0979. The current price at the close is trading directly around the 200 hour moving average of 1.0954. That level is the barometer for the next trading day. On the upside, a move above the 100 hourly moving average should increase the bullish bias.

The USDJPY moved higher and in the process tested a swing area on the higher side at 135.11 to 135.36. The price reached a high of 135.14 before turning to the downside and standing near 134.25. The current price is trading around 134.75 which is a 61.8% retracement of the level from the March high. The retracement level is the barometer of the next trading day. The upside will have traders targeting the swing area between 135.11 and 135.36.

The AUDUSD is trading at 0.6714 to start the new trading day placing the price between the 200 hour moving average below and 0.6701 and the 100 hour moving average above and 0.67266. Traders will be waiting for a break on either side when the technical level starts to consolidate that currency pair. It’s time to move (watch the video HERE)

In other markets:

  • Spot gold is trading up $10.43 or 0.52% at $1994.40.
  • Spot currency is selling $ 0.10 or 0.35% and $ 25.28.
  • WTI crude oil is trading up $1.90 at $79
  • Bitcoin has fallen significantly today and is trading at $29,256. 24 hours ago, the stock was trading around $30,445

in the US debt market, yields increased with a short-term effect leading the way:

  • The 2 year yield is 4.252% at 5.3 basis points
  • 5 year yield 3.706%, up 3.2 basis points
  • 10 years is 3.596% at 2.5 basis points
  • 30 year yield 3.789% unchanged

In the US stock market, the S&P index and NASDAQ closed almost unchanged for the 2nd day. The Dow Industrial Average is up slightly:

  • The Dow industrial average -79.62 points or -0.23% at 33897.02
  • S&P index -0.35 points or -0.01% at 4154.51
  • The NASDAQ index rose 3.8 points or 0.03% at 12157.22
  • The Russell 2000 was up 3.89 points or 0.22% at 1799.44

European shares hit record highs today with the UK FTSE 100 the only decliner

  • Germany’s DAX rose 0.08%
  • France CAC rose 0.21%
  • FTSE 100 -0.13% of UK
  • Spain Ibex +0.77%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.15%

The benchmark UK 10-year yield rose 10.4 basis points at 3.85% after strong inflation data. The German 10-year rose 3.3 basis points to 2.50%. Italy’s 10-year yield rose 20 basis points to 4.353%


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