Market
The response to yesterday’s key UK employment data was recorded in underperformance of UK gilts and sterling’s unconvincing attempt to gain from rising interest rate support. With other data or eco news in the US and Europe, the result is higher than before The current UK price data is also out of the UK. The monthly increase in headline inflation did not slow down (0.8% M/M from 1.1%) keeping the Y/Y measure north of 10% (10.1% from 10.4% vs 9.8% expected). ). The increase continued with the subcategories of food, liquor and tobacco, clothing and footwear, home goods, entertainment and restaurants and hotels showing an increase in month is 1.0%+. The base rate was unchanged at 6.2%. Therefore, the rate of turnover is not far from the fall last year (6.5%). In the March policy statement, the BoE did especially to hold the position on the evidence of continued inflation,’with the stability of labor market conditions and the trend of wage growth and the rise of services‘. After yesterday’s and today’s data, this situation has been met. The May 11 hike has been fully reduced and markets see the BoE peak cycle policy rate near 5.0% in September. UK government bond yields ranged between 10 bps (2-y) and 7.0bps (30-y) (higher intraday). Sterling strengthened below EUR/GBP 0.88 after the release, but again it is difficult to hold these gains (currently close to 0.8805).UK data is also provided a realistic view of global markets (interest rates). US yields added between 4.5 bps (2-y) and 2 bps (30-y), with major stability at 4.26% (2y) and 3.64% currently under intraday testing. German yields are rising in a similar movement between 5.4 bps (2-y) and 1.6 bps (30-y). The idea of a long-term bond reduced the stock market’s sentiment, but so far losses have persisted (Euro Stoxx 50 -0.2%). High-yielding and high-yielding stocks tend to be less profitable. DXY traded near 101.90 from 101.70 this morning. The EUR/USD fell from the 1.0970/80 area this morning to now trade near 1.095. Gains in USD/JPY (134.4) remain low. Among the smaller currencies, the Canadian dollar (USD / CAD 1.343) and the Norwegian krone (EUR / NOK 11.55) are doing well, catching the eye as oil falls from close to $ 85 p / bi a low $ 83.
In central Europe, the forint yielded about 2.0%. The governor Virag of the Hungarian central bank (MNB) at night in an interview marked the improvement of the opinion that opened the way to start the adjustment of policies. The movement of many steps can be reduced on the sidewalk (25%) next week. A key 18% tax cut could be put on the agenda of the next policy meeting. Inflation in Hungary was published at 25.2% Y/Y in March but Vice Governor Virag has shown that this is expected and expects a significant disinflation later this year. At EUR/HUF 376 the forint has recovered part of the previous losses.
News & Reviews
Swiss National Bank Board member Maechler said the central bank’s latest inflation forecasts (March 23). “We use the conditional inflation forecast as an important communication tool. Even with our last 50 bps rate hike, we will only be down to 2% by the end of the forecast period (2025)”. It’s a sign that a rate hike at the June 22 policy meeting will take full effect. SNB chief Jordan said on Friday that it could be fixed. SNB vice-chair Schlegel is scheduled to speak later in Europe tonight. T saidThe Swiss franc is flat today with EUR/CHF trading around 0.9830. The SNB warned in March that the currency is strongly preventing it from becoming weak because it would affect the actions taken through policy rates to implement a stable monetary policy and prevent the expansion.
According to Bloomberg sources related to the Bank of Japan in an article showing the The first meeting under the new governor Ueda will not bring changes (give power curve) immediately after the banking crisis abroad. which is obscured by the material view. There is a desire to hold the current yield caps to support the economy while buying some more time depending on the type of inflation. BoJ governor Ueda’s first appearance before parliament also revealed a willingness to stick to current monetary policy settings for the time being. JPY lost ground against the dollar, touching the 135 psychological barrier. The move did not continue with the greenback coming under pressure as the US trading session began.