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Bitcoin carriers

  • Last week’s big breakouts in Bitcoin and Ethereum are being tested with today’s dips.
  • Bitcoin has at least 4 long-term bullish catalysts.
  • The success of Ethereum’s “Shapella” upgrade has ended the staking process, which could clear the way for a significant reduction in the ETH supply.

It’s been a rough couple of weeks for major crypto assets.

Between the “dangerous” trade and the improvement of “Shapella” last week in Ethereum, Bitcoin and Ethereum hit their highest levels since last summer above $30K and $2K respectively once. As traders begin to relish last week’s big breakouts, today has brought a sell-off cycle in the air, raising questions about when it is appropriate it is a “false breakout.”

Bitcoin Data: Four Long-Term Indicators

Looking at the world’s largest cryptoasset, Bitcoin’s outlook remains stable in the long term for 4 reasons:

First, Bitcoin saw its biggest quarterly gain (+70%) in two years, signaling strong selling pressure after Q4 2022 was wiped out below. of 18K.

Second, long-term holders have used this time to accumulate cryptocurrency, marking the transition of the “accumulation phase” from weak hands to strong hands. These so-called Risk Astleys (because “they don’t give it to you”, get it?) currently hold high numbers of Bitcoin over 80% of the critical supply. This supply came off the market and set the stage for the next bull cycle.


Source: Glassnode

Third, with Bitcoin’s next half-year now almost a year away, we are entering a historically unique period for the crypto market that could last for the next two years.

Finally, and arguably for the first time in his life, Bitcoin has a use case beyond commerce. Like NFTs on other chains, “Inscriptions” or “Ordinals” now allow Bitcoin enthusiasts to write data on the Bitcoin blockchain. By increasing the demand for blockspace beyond the commercial application alone, there is more interest in using the blockchain, increasing its payments and security. As the chart below shows, daily Bitcoin trades are running at levels seen in history near euphoric highs in price:


Source: Glassnode

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is still holding above the previous key-resistance-reverse-support at $28.6K, despite today’s fall. While we wouldn’t be surprised to see today’s drop to that level, long-term bulls may look to move forward before seeing the height of a dive given the upside. of 50- and 200-day EMAs.


Source: TradingView, StoneX. This product may not be available everywhere.

Ethereum Review: Pure “Shapella” May Release Long-Term Supply

Related to his big brother, the long-term outlook is better for Ethereum. Heading into last week’s “Shapella” improvement, analysts believe that many waves of sales will hit the second largest cryptoasset in the world because stakers can which supports the network to sell their first ETH holdings.

While reasonable, there is at least one major problem with that plan so far: stakers don’t buy. public. In fact, it only took a few days for the net staking to return and since the beginning of this week, ETH holders have been available. increasing net argument function:


Source: Nansen

In a way, this makes sense because it is cheaper to stake Ethereum because it is now easier to withdraw their money if necessary (i.e. staking ETH is cheaper than before of the beginning of last week). As the chart below shows, Ethereum is running well below other “proof-of-stake” chains in terms of the percentage of its secured supply, and If it rises in the coming weeks, it will provide a permanent reduction in supply that could further support prices.:


Source: StakingRewards

For near-term price action, ETH/USD is testing its first breakout level at 2,000, and a break below could indicate a deeper interest. Even if we see that fall in the near future, The previously mentioned “tokenomics” of the Ethereum ecosystem attract buyers and put a floor below the price, with the first support near $1800where the 50-day EMA meets the high of the first resistance.


Source: TradingView, StoneX. This product may not be available everywhere.

— Written by Matt Weller, Global Head of Research

Follow Matt on Twitter @MWellerFX

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